President Biden got a fresh jolt of political pain on Thursday with the release of new data showing inflation reaching a 40-year high of 7.9 percent.

The startling figure was a reminder, even amid the international crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, that the fate of Democrats in this November’s midterm elections will be decided by issues close to home.

If Democrats lose control of Congress, Biden will be tightly constrained for the last two years of his first term.